The mailing list industry ain't dead yet... or is it?

Is the mailing list industry headed for death? Two industry veterans take opposing viewpoints through their articles recently published in Direct Magazine. One says "we'll actually be more profitable in 2009" while the other says "the entire direct mail industry is stinko."

David Kanter of Acculist USA takes the optimist's viewpoint in "The List Industry Ain't Dead Yet" including:

"For prospecting, e-mail is not a substitute for a well conceived direct mail program. E-mail open rates are declining. If truth be told, direct mail may actually cost less than e-mail, and generate a superior return on investment (ROI). E-mail is great for maintaining relationships with customers. If you rely on e-mail for prospecting, you will probably be out of business, whether in a good or bad economy."

David's article was in response to a previous article "Direct Marketing Industry is in Major Jeopardy" by Robert Dunhill of Dunhill International List Co., where he takes the pessimist's viewpoint:

"To start, the money that's spent on direct mail in 2009 will fall about 10% under 2008 levels. That's a real wow, isn't it? And, it's not restricted to the financial giants. But they sure are the biggest losers. The mortgage lenders and finance companies were off almost 40%. The credit card companies dropped their volume by 22%. The tech guys, automotive, hospitality and travel, plus the investment companies combined for an additional 56% volume decrease."

The list industry will certainly not stay the same as it was 10 years ago. So which is it? Is the list industry headed for death or a transformation? 

Comments

[HansJurgen]

Just using a bit of common sense - I pay for my online service, so I'm going to be very particular as to who approaches what I pay for. Just as in private home phones which were attacked by marketing, we shut them down since we were paying for the phone service.

Direct mail will survive. In fact, I hope it replaces email intrusion since direct mail is the best way to get a "foot-in-the-door" without riding on the recipient’s expense or destroying their privacy. If this email intrusion continues, we will see the same thing happen to internet communications as what happened to the home phone "do not call" list.

I can see a company offer internet users a service to prescreen and permanently lock out any internet communications that is considered intrusion. Outlook does a pretty good job for the user to "block" an address already, but once it gets to the same level as the "do not call" list then it's over.

So, direct mail has to survive in order to keep the lines of communications open. I don't pay for my mail box, so what gets put in my mail box is a true expense of the sender - not me. And if the direct mail piece is relevant to my needs, then I'll respond either by calling the sender or going online and continuing the process on my choice.

[Gary Walker]

Transformation!
Mail volumes declining does not signify the end of the Direct Mail Industry. What it does show (asides to restricting budgets, etc) is that mailers are targeting better, cleansing better and ultimately being more responsible. In order to satisfy this demand for cleaner, more targeted data list companies are evolving.

[John S. Gibb]

Transformation. At the end of the day, we are in an information-based society - and a list really is nothing but information (or pieces of information rolled into a collection of individual records comprising a list.) Industry leaders need to take their information-based product and align it with current and emerging trends and technologies, which are obviously forming new marketing channels.
These channels (social media being primary) will certianly are and will evolve to become part of a marketing mix - but it won't replace DM. It's a different medium all together. Put in another way - Video didn't kill the radio star, but it certainly forced radio to reinvent itself using new technology and based on customer needs and wants.

[Craig]

Big time, nation wide, low targeted mailings are the big losers... as per your itemized list.

I see plenty of direct mail in my mailbox from local small time operations. Why? It works, but also its gotten a lot easier to execute over the years.

[Suzanne Obermire]

I have a 'no-brainer' opinion--use the channel/channels that work best for you! In today's world, there is no one channel that will reach and resonate with everyone. And, not one that will work with every product/offer/message. So, do as direct marketers should--test until you find the right mix and then test again. This is not a competition, folks. We need to be smart and use email when it's appropriate, postal mail when that makes sense and everything else you can think of.

A true direct marketer can dabble in every medium, and enjoy doing so!

Suzanne